Superforecasters Of the World, Unite
Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner have nailed what goes into predictive analytics with the subtitle of Superforecasting: “The Art and Science Of Prediction.” Because it really is a combination of art and science – the ability to graft subtle nuances onto technical analysis (plus a hearty dose of the ability to change one’s mind) that results in the ability to forecast trends on micro and macro levels with any degree of accuracy whatsoever.
Tetlock and Gardner’s Good Judgment Project required an exhausting level of dedication from its forecasters, and we have to commend these folks. We tend to stick to forecasts in our sphere of tech and design influence moreso than greater trends of nation-states, and these project participants were giving reliable predictions all over the global map for many years. From them, the authors learned a lot about the analytical and personality traits that are common among people who can give a decent forecast – and it often has nothing to do with that person’s “day job”. (In fact, they make the point that many professional “forecasters” you see in the media operate with a degree of ambiguity or with timeframes that prevent us from knowing if those people make decent forecasts at all.)
The book is an enjoyable read, giving you plenty of background on forecasting and the Good Judgment Project and then proceeding to illustrate ways that any of us can improve our forecasting abilities. No, there’s not a specific formula in here that will give every reader the equivalent of a crystal ball, but there’s plenty of strategic and actionable content. Not into math? Don’t worry, you won’t need much. But you will learn how to divide a large, looming question into smaller questions that are much easier to answer, and why you shouldn’t necessarily think in absolutes.
Learn more: Superforecasting: The Art and Science Of Prediction. This book was provided by Blogging For Books; all opinions are our own.